Effect of Manufacturing Variability on Turbine Engine Performance: A Probabilistic Study

While turbine engine Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) accumulated significant experience in the application of probabilistic methods (PM) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to specific technical disciplines and engine components, experience with system-level PM applications has been limited.

To demonstrate the feasibility and benefits of an integrated PM-based system, a numerical case study has been developed around the Honeywell turbine engine application. The case study uses experimental observations of engine performance such as horsepower and fuel flow from a population of engines.